Monday, March 11, 2013

Time To Knock The Dust Off This Blog

I've been away for too long... Yes, its been a while since I last wrote in here.  So where to start?  Well how about with some sleeper candidates?  Ah, let's drop the word sleeper and try to use the word 'undervalued'.  At the end of the day that's what really wins you a draft, snagging players that other people do not value as much at the time, that end up producing for your fantasy team.

This time around, let's take a look at a solid AL Only league draftee, Chris Carter, newly of the Houston Astros.  The Astros acquired Carter in a deal with the Oakland Athletics during the off season.  Why I think he'll be undervalued is that he's a bit of an old prospect (will be 26 years old this season), so your league mate(s) who plunge knee deep into the top lists of prospects each year will miss him.  He's also a batting average risk, as he's never been one to make consistent contact in the major leagues (never better than 75%, including a dismal 69% last season).  Also, playing for the devoid of talent Astros means he'll have less RBI and run scoring opportunities.

Alright, so those are the negatives.  You could end up drafting a batting average sucking, low run producing player on a bad team. The positives?  Well for one, regular playing time.  Last season, Carter only had 218 at bats, 2011 he had 44 and 2010 just 70.  In three seasons he's managed 332 major league at bats.  This season for a dismal Astros team, he should see 500 at bats.  However, the real reason you are even reading this post is not for the playing time prognosis.  Its for what can Chris Carter provide for my fantasy team?

Power.  Gobs and gobs of it.  In 332 major league at bats, 19 home runs.  Last season, in just 218 at bats, all in the second half, he clobbered 16 of those.  I'm not one to make a projection by doubling up the home run numbers.  However, its reasonable to expect a .230-25-75 type season out of him, with a propensity for some solid upside. Upside you say?  Well, Carter will play the majority of his games in the hitter friendly Minute Maid park in Houston.  With a good power hitter being so hard to find, Carter should be in the back of your mind on draft day.

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