Friday, April 8, 2011

The Realist

1.a person who tends to view or represent things as they really are.

There are three sides to this triangle, the side you wish it to be (the optimist), the side you'd hate it to be (the pessimist) and of course the reality.  

Optimistically, (which is a terrible word for me to spell without a spell check for some reason) we all want the players we've taken recently in drafts to all break through.  Every late round pick becomes a solid or superstar.   They all stay healthy and they  all produce. You win the league by 50 points and gloat for years after.  Maybe we can look at this as 'hope'.

Pessimistically, fantasy players view the players that have a bad first week as garbage.  Stud or not, drop them to the waiver wire as they're never going to turn it around.  Is it too early to do so?  Yes but still the frustration sets in.  Best to look at this as 'fear'.

When it comes to fantasy baseball , its best to be the realist:

Its nice to hope that your sleeper relief pitcher will luck his way into saves. Still I'm afraid that Wilton Lopez and his 2 ER, 4 H in just 1 IP with no strikeouts is grounds to get a manager's blessing to finally start closing games any time soon. Realistically, Brandon Lyon sucks dude.  Somebody's going to get saves in Houston though.

Its comforting to think that Alex Gordon will finally break out for those that have invested annually in his 'talents'.  Still, pessimistically, what has changed?  Its a nice streak he's on that's for sure but I doubt he's a .379 hitter.  Realistically, I think its somewhere in the middle.  Gordon's going to exceed expectations this season.

Its nice to think that the Blue Jays have a shot at winning the AL East, but there are too many good teams in that division. The pessimist says alot has to go right, the realist says the division is more volatile than people think.

For those that have not given Cleveland starter Carlos Carrasco a second thought, the optimist in me thinks he could be very effective for even shallow leagues this season.  The pessimist would note he plays for the Indians.  Still, the realist says 150 K's 4.00- 1.27 should be attainable despite his disaster start last week.  His tendency to keep the ball on the ground will only benefit him as the season wears on.

A few other random things quickly:

Seriously, Jayson Nix in the 2-hole John Farrell?  Career OBP and Hit rate: .290 and 75%.  That's 8th in the order material.

Adam Lind has returned. He's not going to hit .357 but set your expectations at around .300 and there will be no tears at the end of the year.

When you wait on a pitcher for years its kind of exciting to see him finally produce.  Ricky Nolasco, although against the Astros his second time out, has been brilliant. 15 baserunners allowed in 15 innings with no walks.

Craig Kimbrel is 3-3 in nailing down saves with 6 strikeouts in just 3 IP.  Yeah I should have reached for him in more leagues.

I actually feel bad for Justin Smoak in that Seattle lineup.  I don't think I get more bored than when looking at that batting order.  Smoak would have been a huge fantasy sleeper in Texas but he'll be lucky to get .270-20-75 in Seattle.  Still, I like Smoak.