Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Jered Weaver - 2012 Proceed With Caution

I have spent a great deal of time thinking about how to address players like Jered Weaver.  From a purely logical point of view, I can't say AVOID a pitcher who for two straight seasons has been one of the most dominant pitchers in the American League. He does possess quality base skills (i.e. 7.5 K/9 and 2.21 BB/9) to back up my claim.  Still, I can't get over his ridiculously low batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .250 or his otherworldly 83% strand rate.  Is Weaver another statistical anomaly as fellow West Coast right hander Matt Cain continues to be?  Or does the 2.41 ERA and 1.01 WHIP beg for a correction?  The Baseball Gods can't allow this solid luck to continue into 2012 can they?  Put me firmly in the 'Weaver is sure to regress' camp.  I cannot, with any right frame of mind, suggest not drafting Weaver.  Still, I do not believe he continues to be a sub 3.00 ERA pitcher as a fly ball pitcher (33% GB rate) in the American League. I think a safe projection would be closer to his career averages of 3.20 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and around 190 strikeouts. Its too early to rank him yet, but if he makes it on to your favorite baseball site's top 10 starting pitchers list, you might want to look elsewhere for fantasy advice.

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