Friday, September 30, 2011

Ricky Romero - Avoid 2012

It pains me to say this but Ricky is due for a down season next year.  Let's look at this way, in 2010 he posted a 3.73 ERA 1.29 WHIP and 174 K.  This season 2.92 ERA 1.14 WHIP and 178 K.  Looks like he's figured something out somewhere right?  Upon closer inspection we see no improvement in K/9, GB% (ground ball rate) but a slight decrease of BB/9 (down to 3.20 this past season).  What's the deal here?  Well, like Jeremy Hellickson (read down a few posts) he's managed to get gigantically lucky on balls in play (.242) this season.  Romero's skills suggest his ERA should have been closer to 4.00 than 3.0.  Add to that he pitches in the AL East and suddenly we're looking at two red flags.  I'm not going to say abandon Romero in 2012 but if you think he's an ace, think again.  He's a solid #2 starter tops and you should treat him as such in drafts next year.

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