Thursday, September 29, 2011

Jeremy Hellickson - 2012 Avoid

This will be of course written before Hellickson goes through the playoffs destroying all in his path as the Rays win the Championship.  There we got our first blind and completely uninhibited prediction out of the way.  Seriously though,  there are a couple of things to know about Jeremy Hellickson who's 2.95 ERA and sparkling 1.15 will be deceiving for 2012.  First,  he's not striking out near enough batters (5.57 K/9) to warrant drafting him especially playing in the ultra competitive AL East.  His minor league resume boasts a relatively steady 9+ K/9 Although at his age (24) there will be lots of time to improve as he figures major league hitters out.  Second, his .223 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was as lucky as you can get.  Third and most importantly, his GB% (ground ball rate) was just 35%.  That's the scary part.  65% of the balls hit in play were either line drives or pop flys.  I'm just mentioning the AL East factor again, as the rest of the division all play in cozy hitters parks.  His draft stock will indeed be high but I think it goes without saying, avoid Hellickson like the plague in 2012.

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