Latest Treasure Hunt Up on Sports Grumblings

Hi All,

My latest weekly piece

http://www.sportsgrumblings.com/baseball/articles/articles/1610/1/Fantasy-Baseball-Treasure-Hunting/Page1.html

Ubaldo In Top Form

A lot of experts were down on Ubaldo Jimenez in fantasy projections. He looked very impressive today versus a very strong Blue Jays team. He no hit the Jays thru 6 before finally surrendering a two run single to Brett Lawrie. Brandon Morrow was not as impressive but was effective over 6 IP. Both are relatively undervalued considering their talents and make for good trade targets.

More Opening Day Madness

Well, it never fails that after I publish a post something happens to completely contradict it.  Matt Thornton was brought in the eighth inning yesterday and although many are brushing it off as manager Robin Ventura's indecisiveness over the closer role, I can't help but speculate that he thinks Thornton is not the guy.  Of course, way to early to make a hasty decision in fantasy but it raises a red flag for me.  At this point in the season I would say err on the side of caution when dropping a player.  Guys with talent like Thornton's can come back to haunt you if you jump ship too early.

In other action:

Both Ian Kinsler  and Evan Longoria went long in their first action of the regular season.  Kinsler owners know the drill by now: if he's healthy the Rangers 2B is a stud fantasy player.  Longoria gets plenty of love in fantasy circles but this really could be the season he transforms into a top 5 player.  He's been around a while and is just now entering his prime years.  Oh and he's scary good.

James Shields didn't look as good but don't panic.  He's due for a bit of a regression from his superstar numbers of a season ago.  His skills are still top quality and if his owner is eager to move him, I'd be buying.

An interesting bounce back candidate could be Chone Figgins.  The Mariners continue to bat him lead off and he rewarded them last night with a 3 for 4 outing with an SB.  For deep leagues only right now.

This is a great start to the season with another home run for Oakland's Yoenis Cespedes who should be owned in all leagues.  He's a very talented Cuban import who boasts power and a bit of speed.

Lastly for today, do not sleep on Raul Ibanez, he could have a very solid year in NY.  Dismiss the age a bit and note that he had a poor year for BABIP in 2011.  Yankee Stadium caters to left handed power and there might not be a better line up in the American League.

Opening Day ?!?! and AL Bullpens

Sorry but I miss the good old days when all of the Opening Day games were on one day!  The fact that the season starts in Japan might be good for international exposure to the game but I find it takes away from the spectacle that is the first day of the season.  You remember right?  When there was a full day of games, most of them in the afternoon where plenty of people who should have been working were at the ball park. Anyway, I'm being nostalgic.  Baseball should continue to spread its wings internationally and for scheduling purposes they have to play the Japan games well ahead of the regular season.

As usual the closer situation in the major leagues is in fluctuation.  The AL appears to be more volatile thus far where there are new closers in Boston, Tampa and Kansas City.   Alfredo Aceves, Joel Peralta and Jonathan Broxton have inherited the roles thus far and are probably long gone in most fantasy leagues.  Also, I think the roles in Chicago, Minnesota, Cleveland and Baltimore are hardly locks.  Although every statistician revels in Matt Thornton's abilities, he struggled in the role early last season, is left handed and is 36 years old.  Most managers prefer a right handed closer. That being said, I'm confident if Thornton can hold on to the job he could end up as a top 10 closer this season.  The Twins closer Matt Capps is coming off an awful 2011 season but the internal options aren't much better.  That being said, Glen Perkins, although left handed, boasts excellent skills from 2011.  He's the handcuff if Capps struggles.  In Cleveland, Chris Perez blew a save against the Blue Jays in an Opening Day marathon 16 inning loss.  With Vinnie Pestano showing considerably better skills last season, it would not surprise me if he takes over the role in Cleveland, possibly in the early going. Baltimore closer Jim Johnson didn't look very good in the spring and I kind of like Matt Lindstrom  as a sneaky source of saves.  Lindstrom has become a better control pitcher as he has aged.  If Johnson struggles, do not be surprised if Buck Showalter makes the change.

Wow, this post ended up being mostly about the bullpen.... next time out we'll step onto the field a bit.

Sorry For The Lack Of Posts Lately

I am busy putting together content for the Sports Grumblings draft kit. I am knee deep in starting pitcher ranks right now. Who is your top ranked pitcher for 2012?

Prince Fielder Fantasy Dud?

Its always interesting to see what insiders or experts come up with when providing statistical analysis. One of the lines of thought on Detroit newcomer Prince Fielder has been that his 'just enough' home runs in Milwaukee would be NOT enough if he had connected with the same hit in Detroit.  The AL Central parks, in general, suppress left handed power hitting.  This evidence is meant to support an argument which indicates a down year in 2012 for Prince Fielder.  Although, I agree somewhat, I don't think this is a logical reason to expect Fielder to have less home runs for the Tigers.  The one factor that is completely ignored in this type of analysis is his age.  He's now 28 and entering the prime of his career, which for many athletes means an increase in upper body power.  We can't expect a rise in power BECAUSE he's reaching his prime as the 'prime' age is a general age, often unique to each player.  However, I don't believe the change in home parks ALONE will hurt his home run output for 2012.

Where I do see a problem for Fielder will be the pressure of the gigantic contract which now will draw him extra media attention.  Since he's considered an elite player, we will expect him to rise to the expectations but many a player has struggled (I'm looking at you Carl Crawford) in the first season after signing a huge contract.  Also, the change of venue from the National League to the AL.  For hitters, this is generally considered a positive.  Still, Fielder will need some time to adjust to AL pitchers and to his new surroundings, which include an entirely new league and division.

At the end of the day, Fielder shouldn't be considered risky as we're really debating an elite range of fantasy production.  His floor for power is likely 30 home runs.  Prince's ceiling is another matter entirely and that's what most of the experts are debating.  With Miguel Cabrera also in the lineup pitchers will be forced to pitch at least one of them, which if you believe in line up protection (prove it to me statistically because I don't), should provide ample RBI and run scoring opportunities for both players.  I would think a repeat of his 2011 statistics would not be outlandish for 2012.  Just temper your expectations for an improvement this season.

Is Adam Done? - Sleepers 2012

Pardon the pun of the title of the post, but what went on with Adam Dunn in 2011?  Its obvious we are witnessing a regression but did other factors come into play?  This is very difficult to say but there were plenty of factors I feel are greatly overlooked when writing him off for 2012.  One reason that is often missed is last season was his first in a new city and a new league.  Having never played in the American League, Dunn would have faced many pitchers he had never seen before. That being said, he was also playing on a new team which has been shown to somewhat reduce the production of a player in his first tour of duty in a new location.   Lastly, Dunn's former manager in Chicago, Ozzie Guillen, isn't exactly known for being a "player's manager".  The White Sox DH was slumping badly for most of the season and because of this likely ended up in Guillen's dog house.  This lead to less at bats (deservedly so due to Dunn's results).  Also, one more change: he was primarily the designated hitter for the first time in his career.  I've read players that suggest this can be a difficult adjustment after being a regular position player.  Still, at this point these points are pure speculation.

The hard facts, the statistics that is, suggest the Dunn 1) suffered his worst contact season of his career (65% contact rate) and 2) suffered the worst BABIP of his career (.240).  I think its easy to see why he suffered through a .159 batting average in 2011. Finally, he suffered a career worst HR/FB of 9%!  For a player who was regularly above 20%, this would be the leading factor in why his home run output was only 11.

Now, does all of this point to a rebound in 2012?  Well, nothing is assured of course but some reasons to suggest hope:  He's entering his 33rd year, well within his prime years.  Dunn will be more familiar with his surroundings this season.  The DH's walk rate was strong (15%). Ozzie Guillen is no longer the manager in Chicago.  As with any players in the spring, there is plenty of reason for optimism and I would speculate on a small bounce back from this former OBP and HR monster.