Joe Saunders - 2012 Avoid

Let's be honest, you're not excited about Joe Saunders right?  Really?  Ok, so Saunders had 'on paper' his best season since 2008.  He had a nice 3.69 ERA, a slightly robust 1.37 WHIP and won 12 games for the NL West Division winners.  However, next season when you're doing up your draft list I'd just put Saunders near the bottom.  Why?  Well, let's look at what he brings to the mound: a low 4.58 K/9, a high 1.23 HR/9  and a decent 44.5% GB rate.  Saunders skills suggest that he's a below average major league pitcher.  These skills are not about to change either as he does not have nasty stuff (89 MPH average fastball).  The main reason he boasts a sub - 4.00 ERA is his lucky BABIP (.271) and ridiculously high strand rate (77%).  The only reason you want Saunders on your roster is if you play in a deep NL only type league where a pitcher getting regular innings is going to be useful.  Don't buy a pitcher for wins and don't draft Joe Saunders in 2012.

Jeff Karstens - 2012 Avoid

As you analyze players you begin to notice trends.  Some of these are more common and often I will mentally toss a player under the bus even before looking at the statistics.  This isn't fair of me, but heck that's just how my mind works.  That being said, Jeff Karstens' name alone was screaming at me even before I looked at his numbers.  Let's look at his career numbers first: 4.52 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 4.48 K/9 in just over 500 IP during his MLB career.  Its safe to say Karstens' has been a slightly below average major league pitcher over his short career.  Did 2011 change the Pirates starter into a fantasy relevant pitcher?  Well, if you look at his body of work (3.38 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 2.91 K/BB) it would appear to be so right?  Still, it always pays to look under the hood and there's not a whole lot to like here.  He benefited from a highly lucky .275 BABIP and his xFIP is actually a full run higher than his ERA.  Not convinced?  Well, take a look at some of his base skills: Karstens 5.32 K/9 and average 89 MPH fastball are far from interesting.

Yet, he did manage to keep the ball on the ground at a higher percentage than any other point in his career (46%) and his BB/9 (1.83) or control was excellent.  However, its rare where these types of skills make for long term success in the big leagues.  At 29 years old, you could argue he's reaching his prime years but what are you really getting here?  A pitcher who will not repeat his 2011 numbers and should be avoided in 2012 drafts.

Ryan Vogelsong - 2012 Avoid

It probably goes without saying that a 34 year old journeyman pitcher coming off a miraculous season should be on our avoid list for 2012.  Still, we should break it down further.  The Giants starter returned from Japan a 'new man' but essentially he was just really fortunate in 2011.  His 80% strand rate is about 5% above league average and his .280 BABIP is begging for a bit of a regression in 2012.  Now to be fair, Vogelsong actually does boast some nice new skills.  His K/9 is nearing a very respectable 7 and his walk rate although not elite (3.06 BB/9) is quite good.  He also kept the ball on the ground at a solid clip (45%).  Essentially we're looking at a pretty good pitcher not a 2.71 ERA and 1.25 WHIP type though.  Think an ERA closer to 3.5 and a WHIP closer to 1.3 and you'll be closer to the mark.  Don't pay for the ERA folks!

Ricky Romero - Avoid 2012

It pains me to say this but Ricky is due for a down season next year.  Let's look at this way, in 2010 he posted a 3.73 ERA 1.29 WHIP and 174 K.  This season 2.92 ERA 1.14 WHIP and 178 K.  Looks like he's figured something out somewhere right?  Upon closer inspection we see no improvement in K/9, GB% (ground ball rate) but a slight decrease of BB/9 (down to 3.20 this past season).  What's the deal here?  Well, like Jeremy Hellickson (read down a few posts) he's managed to get gigantically lucky on balls in play (.242) this season.  Romero's skills suggest his ERA should have been closer to 4.00 than 3.0.  Add to that he pitches in the AL East and suddenly we're looking at two red flags.  I'm not going to say abandon Romero in 2012 but if you think he's an ace, think again.  He's a solid #2 starter tops and you should treat him as such in drafts next year.

Jeremy Hellickson - 2012 Avoid

This will be of course written before Hellickson goes through the playoffs destroying all in his path as the Rays win the Championship.  There we got our first blind and completely uninhibited prediction out of the way.  Seriously though,  there are a couple of things to know about Jeremy Hellickson who's 2.95 ERA and sparkling 1.15 will be deceiving for 2012.  First,  he's not striking out near enough batters (5.57 K/9) to warrant drafting him especially playing in the ultra competitive AL East.  His minor league resume boasts a relatively steady 9+ K/9 Although at his age (24) there will be lots of time to improve as he figures major league hitters out.  Second, his .223 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was as lucky as you can get.  Third and most importantly, his GB% (ground ball rate) was just 35%.  That's the scary part.  65% of the balls hit in play were either line drives or pop flys.  I'm just mentioning the AL East factor again, as the rest of the division all play in cozy hitters parks.  His draft stock will indeed be high but I think it goes without saying, avoid Hellickson like the plague in 2012.