James Shields 2012 - Proceed With Caution

Much like Weaver, James Shields falls into unusual territory.  He's a pitcher who boasts extraordinary skill (46% GB%, 8.12 K/9, 2.35 BB/9) and although he had a fantastic 2011 season statistically, his 2012 forecast simply has to be dimmer.  Bear in mind, we're not looking at a starting pitcher who will drop precipitously from a 2.82 ERA to a 4.00.  Shields is still a strong starting pitcher who will make a strong #2 starter on most fantasy squads.  Just don't be one of the many to ignore his .258 BABIP and 80% strand rate.  Generally speaking the league average BABIP is around .300 and strand rate is around 75%.  Like Weaver, Shields can't continue to be THIS lucky, especially given that he plays in the American League East.  Expect a slightly higher ERA and WHIP (think 3.50 and 1.20) coupled with around 200 strike outs and you shouldn't be disappointed.

Jered Weaver - 2012 Proceed With Caution

I have spent a great deal of time thinking about how to address players like Jered Weaver.  From a purely logical point of view, I can't say AVOID a pitcher who for two straight seasons has been one of the most dominant pitchers in the American League. He does possess quality base skills (i.e. 7.5 K/9 and 2.21 BB/9) to back up my claim.  Still, I can't get over his ridiculously low batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .250 or his otherworldly 83% strand rate.  Is Weaver another statistical anomaly as fellow West Coast right hander Matt Cain continues to be?  Or does the 2.41 ERA and 1.01 WHIP beg for a correction?  The Baseball Gods can't allow this solid luck to continue into 2012 can they?  Put me firmly in the 'Weaver is sure to regress' camp.  I cannot, with any right frame of mind, suggest not drafting Weaver.  Still, I do not believe he continues to be a sub 3.00 ERA pitcher as a fly ball pitcher (33% GB rate) in the American League. I think a safe projection would be closer to his career averages of 3.20 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and around 190 strikeouts. Its too early to rank him yet, but if he makes it on to your favorite baseball site's top 10 starting pitchers list, you might want to look elsewhere for fantasy advice.