Game 7 of the World Series - Pregame

Alright, as I mentioned in an earlier post, it totally makes sense for the Cardinals to have Chris Carpenter start Game 7.  The starter has yet to lose in the 2011 post season.   However, I'm still questioning Rangers manager Ron Washington's decision to go with lefty Matt Harrison. I guess in a few hours we'll know but to me this is Game 7 suicide for the Rangers.  Carpenter has easily been the Cardinals best pitcher in the playoffs and Harrison flat out blew game 3.  The Rangers don't really have one ace starting pitcher but it would surprise me if we didn't see C.J. Wilson very early in this game.  Either way, all hands will be on deck as both managers try to win a single game which can be a very difficult task for managers who are used to playing an 162 game season.  It will be an interesting 'chess match'.

Health issues abound for the Rangers as catcher Mike Napoli (ankle) and outfielder Nelson Cruz (what injury doesn't this guy get) are on the mend.  Both will likely play but are not at 100%.  I'm pulling for the Rangers who have yet to win a championship but the odds are against them.  It must really sting to have been on strike away from the championship TWICE last night.  Hopefully they have the mental makeup to ignore yesterday's heartbreak and play at an elite level tonight.

Joe Saunders - 2012 Avoid

Let's be honest, you're not excited about Joe Saunders right?  Really?  Ok, so Saunders had 'on paper' his best season since 2008.  He had a nice 3.69 ERA, a slightly robust 1.37 WHIP and won 12 games for the NL West Division winners.  However, next season when you're doing up your draft list I'd just put Saunders near the bottom.  Why?  Well, let's look at what he brings to the mound: a low 4.58 K/9, a high 1.23 HR/9  and a decent 44.5% GB rate.  Saunders skills suggest that he's a below average major league pitcher.  These skills are not about to change either as he does not have nasty stuff (89 MPH average fastball).  The main reason he boasts a sub - 4.00 ERA is his lucky BABIP (.271) and ridiculously high strand rate (77%).  The only reason you want Saunders on your roster is if you play in a deep NL only type league where a pitcher getting regular innings is going to be useful.  Don't buy a pitcher for wins and don't draft Joe Saunders in 2012.

World Series Game 3 - Preview

I'm not certain of much but if you like baseball games with lots of scoring tonight's game will be for you.  Nothing against the starters Kyle Lohse and Matt Harrison, but neither starter boasts nasty stuff.  Add to the fact that they will play the game at the Ballpark in Arlington, one of the most hitter friendly parks in the league, and you have yourself a barn burner in the making.  I've already slammed Lohse in an earlier post but let's just say I don't like his chances against the Rangers in Texas.  His 2011 K/9 of 5.30 and his relatively high FB% (36.7) do not bode well for success in Arlington. Sure he hasn't faced many of the hitters in their current lineup (Michael Young the lone standout), so he will have a slight element of surprise going for him.  Still, the Rangers boast a multitude of power bats and the stadium caters to them.  The key for the Cardinals will be if Lohse can allow slightly less runs than Harrison.  The Rangers Game 3 starter had a solid season and all of his skills suggest he may be for real.  The highest K/BB of his career (2.21) has lead to easily his best season as a big leaguer.  Harrison does a good job of keeping the ball on the ground (47%) and striking out batters (6.11 K/9) which are key skills for winning games in the cozy confines in Arlington.  I don't see this one ending 1-0 but I've been wrong before and will be again.  Look for a big scoring game which I think the Rangers win.

Rangers Win Game 2!

The Cardinals are the hottest team (maybe other than the Rays) that came into the playoffs.  They very nearly won this game as closer Jason Motte just couldn't shut the door.  My prediction at this point?  I like the Rangers going home for three games and possibly winning the series.  Texas has an incredibly talented offensive club and I just don't see 3rd and 4th game potential starters Edwin Jackson , Kyle Lohse or Jake Westbrook getting it done.  If I'm in Tony LaRussa's position (yay!  I'm not) I would certainly be looking at getting Carpenter out there in Game 4 rather than risk Lohse.  This means Garcia starts Game 5, Jackson again in game 6 and Game 7 back to Carpenter.

Looking at the Cardinal's roster does it not seem like a bit slapped together?  The first thing that stands out is who thought Kyle Lohse was worth 12,000,000 a year?  Wow.  Secondly, their organizational philosophy must have been to acquire as many utility eligible players as possible.  Craig Allen, Nick Punto, Skip Schumaker and Ryan Theriot have all played some role in getting St. Louis to the World Series.  Still, how can this mixed bag of players really compare to the bats of the Rangers? 

I guess I would think differently if the Cardinals win the next game but Texas on paper appears to be the better ball club.  Stranger things have happened though...

Jeff Karstens - 2012 Avoid

As you analyze players you begin to notice trends.  Some of these are more common and often I will mentally toss a player under the bus even before looking at the statistics.  This isn't fair of me, but heck that's just how my mind works.  That being said, Jeff Karstens' name alone was screaming at me even before I looked at his numbers.  Let's look at his career numbers first: 4.52 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 4.48 K/9 in just over 500 IP during his MLB career.  Its safe to say Karstens' has been a slightly below average major league pitcher over his short career.  Did 2011 change the Pirates starter into a fantasy relevant pitcher?  Well, if you look at his body of work (3.38 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 2.91 K/BB) it would appear to be so right?  Still, it always pays to look under the hood and there's not a whole lot to like here.  He benefited from a highly lucky .275 BABIP and his xFIP is actually a full run higher than his ERA.  Not convinced?  Well, take a look at some of his base skills: Karstens 5.32 K/9 and average 89 MPH fastball are far from interesting.

Yet, he did manage to keep the ball on the ground at a higher percentage than any other point in his career (46%) and his BB/9 (1.83) or control was excellent.  However, its rare where these types of skills make for long term success in the big leagues.  At 29 years old, you could argue he's reaching his prime years but what are you really getting here?  A pitcher who will not repeat his 2011 numbers and should be avoided in 2012 drafts.

Ryan Vogelsong - 2012 Avoid

It probably goes without saying that a 34 year old journeyman pitcher coming off a miraculous season should be on our avoid list for 2012.  Still, we should break it down further.  The Giants starter returned from Japan a 'new man' but essentially he was just really fortunate in 2011.  His 80% strand rate is about 5% above league average and his .280 BABIP is begging for a bit of a regression in 2012.  Now to be fair, Vogelsong actually does boast some nice new skills.  His K/9 is nearing a very respectable 7 and his walk rate although not elite (3.06 BB/9) is quite good.  He also kept the ball on the ground at a solid clip (45%).  Essentially we're looking at a pretty good pitcher not a 2.71 ERA and 1.25 WHIP type though.  Think an ERA closer to 3.5 and a WHIP closer to 1.3 and you'll be closer to the mark.  Don't pay for the ERA folks!

Fantasy Hockey musings - Rays Demolish Rangers

I've been busy ranking hockey players in time for a draft I can't make this weekend.  Probably annoying for most, but I find just ranking the players ahead of time saves me in-draft stress.  I mean this is not REAL stress. This is a game we're playing here.

If you're reading this I assume you've been in a live draft before. I find I can sit back and relax during the draft since I'm not digging up stats and injury lists like other guys I'm assuming are. There are always guys that take the entire allotted time to make a pick.  You can bet after all that time the player they draft is lousy too, especially the deeper the draft goes. Those I think are the guys that don't take time to pre-rank.

During this process, I don't do anything remarkable.  I just rank the total number players that are to be drafted. As it gets deeper I end up selecting players that I can tolerate, as opposed to players I actually would like.  In hockey that 'tolerate list' is pretty large as once your outside of the top 150 players it becomes a crap shoot.  I think this is similar in any fantasy sports game.  More about hockey later... let's shift gears...

About the Rays:

Well is it too early to call Tampa the favorite?  They're definitely the hottest team coming in to the post season (other than the Cardinals).  It kind of scares me that they tossed out a rookie, Matt Moore today who ended up shutting out one of the best hitting ball clubs in the league.  The Rays just have insane minor league depth.  Hats off to their management, coaching and scouting staff.  The Rays might not be the better team but I don't think the Rangers have the pitching depth to get past the Rays.  To be honest, I'm not certain any AL team has better pitching than the Rays.  James Shields is an ace, David Price is not far off and Jeff Niemann might have been the best pitcher in the major leagues down the stretch.

Detroit and New York will have to rely on aces Justin Verlander and CC Sabathia respectively.  Can they really get to the World Series with one ace?  Time will tell..

Thanks for reading...