A note about sabermetrics:
BABIP: Batting average on balls in play - a luck factor
GB%: Ground ball rate - a skill factor for pitchers, as well as hitters. The lower the GB% for a hitter the more likely he's making good contact, the higher for pitchers the harder it is to make solid contact off of him.
K/9: A simple one, strikeouts per 9 innings pitched.
BB/9: Ditto but with walks.
I always found it helpful to have this glossary around. I tend to use the terms like I'm talking to people who know exactly what they mean. That's not necessarily a good thing so you can always refer back to this post in times of pure 'saber-speak'.
Friday, September 30, 2011
Ricky Romero - Avoid 2012
It pains me to say this but Ricky is due for a down season next year. Let's look at this way, in 2010 he posted a 3.73 ERA 1.29 WHIP and 174 K. This season 2.92 ERA 1.14 WHIP and 178 K. Looks like he's figured something out somewhere right? Upon closer inspection we see no improvement in K/9, GB% (ground ball rate) but a slight decrease of BB/9 (down to 3.20 this past season). What's the deal here? Well, like Jeremy Hellickson (read down a few posts) he's managed to get gigantically lucky on balls in play (.242) this season. Romero's skills suggest his ERA should have been closer to 4.00 than 3.0. Add to that he pitches in the AL East and suddenly we're looking at two red flags. I'm not going to say abandon Romero in 2012 but if you think he's an ace, think again. He's a solid #2 starter tops and you should treat him as such in drafts next year.
Thursday, September 29, 2011
Post Comments For Advice
I'll probably have to re-post this a few times but just be aware that if you want any questions answered just post in the comments or tweet me @games_on_lance. I'll be happy (well mildly amused anyway) to respond!
Thanks!
Thanks!
Jeremy Hellickson - 2012 Avoid
This will be of course written before Hellickson goes through the playoffs destroying all in his path as the Rays win the Championship. There we got our first blind and completely uninhibited prediction out of the way. Seriously though, there are a couple of things to know about Jeremy Hellickson who's 2.95 ERA and sparkling 1.15 will be deceiving for 2012. First, he's not striking out near enough batters (5.57 K/9) to warrant drafting him especially playing in the ultra competitive AL East. His minor league resume boasts a relatively steady 9+ K/9 Although at his age (24) there will be lots of time to improve as he figures major league hitters out. Second, his .223 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was as lucky as you can get. Third and most importantly, his GB% (ground ball rate) was just 35%. That's the scary part. 65% of the balls hit in play were either line drives or pop flys. I'm just mentioning the AL East factor again, as the rest of the division all play in cozy hitters parks. His draft stock will indeed be high but I think it goes without saying, avoid Hellickson like the plague in 2012.
Fantasy Baseball Season Ends With a Bang
That sound you hear is likely a ton of Boston fans crying out in unison. What a nasty way to finish if you are a Red Sox fan. Seriously though did they even have a shot at winning? I'm not completely sure they did. Beaten up after annual post-season berths, the Sox were going to have to trade for a starting pitcher to pitch in the event of a tie breaker (the rumors were swirling around KC's Bruce Chen).
So now where will the play offs take us? Last season, the San Francisco Giants scraped into the playoffs despite winning the NL West. They went on to best the Rangers for the World Series title. Could that possibly be the Tampa Bay Rays this season? With all of the youth and talent in that clubhouse can they really be a World Series champion?
I'm certain those questions were swirling around last season as well. As baseball stays the same, the Yankees, Phillies, Cardinals and Rangers have been in the post season regularly, it also is in constant motion. We somehow end up with a highly improbable champion when its all said and done. Let's be fair here though, in baseball playoffs, its all about the starting pitching. If you have three good starters, or even two dominating ones like the Giants did last season with Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, you're going to make some noise.
Right away, that makes the Phillies the team to beat. We'll have to wait and see.
I'm hoping become a bit more vocal in this space especially over the baseball off season. We'll take a look at some players I like for next season, some off season movement and anything else that tickles my fancy. So please tune in...
So now where will the play offs take us? Last season, the San Francisco Giants scraped into the playoffs despite winning the NL West. They went on to best the Rangers for the World Series title. Could that possibly be the Tampa Bay Rays this season? With all of the youth and talent in that clubhouse can they really be a World Series champion?
I'm certain those questions were swirling around last season as well. As baseball stays the same, the Yankees, Phillies, Cardinals and Rangers have been in the post season regularly, it also is in constant motion. We somehow end up with a highly improbable champion when its all said and done. Let's be fair here though, in baseball playoffs, its all about the starting pitching. If you have three good starters, or even two dominating ones like the Giants did last season with Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, you're going to make some noise.
Right away, that makes the Phillies the team to beat. We'll have to wait and see.
I'm hoping become a bit more vocal in this space especially over the baseball off season. We'll take a look at some players I like for next season, some off season movement and anything else that tickles my fancy. So please tune in...
Friday, August 5, 2011
Trading Time
I don't know about most of you but I'm finding I trade only twice a year. Now, I should edit that... I don't trade just two times in a year, I really only make deals or talk deals at two junctures in the season. My favorite time is in the pre-season when a lot of people are guessing at player values. Its also when people tend to be the most excited about the upcoming baseball season. Now, the obvious difference is, I only play in keeper leagues. Other than that its this time of year... I usually end up caving and having to make a deal in August.
By caving I really mean I hate making trades but in some cases its pretty much a necessity. When you play in a deep league its almost impossible to get what you want off the wire. This brings me to the newest craze which some sites have been doing for years but one notable site just started called 'draft pick trading'. Now in a deep league these 'picks' becomes truly valuable but impossible to gauge. Most fantasy leagues I'm in allow for the pick trading but most don't even bother to use it or at least use it correctly.
For me, if I'm in a top 4 or 5 position in the standings, I'm trading draft picks like they're going out of style. Why? Well, most of the players left in the draft are generally speaking, non-elite or riskier types. Gambles. I usually spend the latter half of my draft, or the re-draft since all I play in is keeper leagues taking chances. I have a list of guys I like for various reasons that could easily be jettisoned for the hot pick up of April if they don't pan out. In other words, I don't see a ton of value in loading up on draft picks.
That being said, I'm a guy who (arrogantly apparently) steps into a draft prepared. I'm ridiculously meticulous about making a long list of useful players, players who will get regular at bats or prospects who have a strong chance at making the big club. In my experience, most fantasy players don't bother to do this, so they spend the last few rounds looking for names they know or using all of the draft clock while the research on the fly. I'm not suggesting the 'list' method is foolproof but it saves me a lot of stress. That and it affords me some flexibility at this time of year to pillage other teams using draft picks as bait.
I think the 1st round draft pick seems to be the most in demand but it should be taken in context. If you're in a 10 team league who keeps 6 players each, you're talking about a 61 to 70 ranked player at best. Generally speaking these aren't studs you're giving away.
Anyway, just some food for thought during the trade season... enjoy.
By caving I really mean I hate making trades but in some cases its pretty much a necessity. When you play in a deep league its almost impossible to get what you want off the wire. This brings me to the newest craze which some sites have been doing for years but one notable site just started called 'draft pick trading'. Now in a deep league these 'picks' becomes truly valuable but impossible to gauge. Most fantasy leagues I'm in allow for the pick trading but most don't even bother to use it or at least use it correctly.
For me, if I'm in a top 4 or 5 position in the standings, I'm trading draft picks like they're going out of style. Why? Well, most of the players left in the draft are generally speaking, non-elite or riskier types. Gambles. I usually spend the latter half of my draft, or the re-draft since all I play in is keeper leagues taking chances. I have a list of guys I like for various reasons that could easily be jettisoned for the hot pick up of April if they don't pan out. In other words, I don't see a ton of value in loading up on draft picks.
That being said, I'm a guy who (arrogantly apparently) steps into a draft prepared. I'm ridiculously meticulous about making a long list of useful players, players who will get regular at bats or prospects who have a strong chance at making the big club. In my experience, most fantasy players don't bother to do this, so they spend the last few rounds looking for names they know or using all of the draft clock while the research on the fly. I'm not suggesting the 'list' method is foolproof but it saves me a lot of stress. That and it affords me some flexibility at this time of year to pillage other teams using draft picks as bait.
I think the 1st round draft pick seems to be the most in demand but it should be taken in context. If you're in a 10 team league who keeps 6 players each, you're talking about a 61 to 70 ranked player at best. Generally speaking these aren't studs you're giving away.
Anyway, just some food for thought during the trade season... enjoy.
Friday, April 8, 2011
The Realist
re·al·ist
[ree-uh-list]
–noun
1.a person who tends to view or represent things as they really are. http://dictionary.reference.com/
There are three sides to this triangle, the side you wish it to be (the optimist), the side you'd hate it to be (the pessimist) and of course the reality.
Optimistically, (which is a terrible word for me to spell without a spell check for some reason) we all want the players we've taken recently in drafts to all break through. Every late round pick becomes a solid or superstar. They all stay healthy and they all produce. You win the league by 50 points and gloat for years after. Maybe we can look at this as 'hope'.
Pessimistically, fantasy players view the players that have a bad first week as garbage. Stud or not, drop them to the waiver wire as they're never going to turn it around. Is it too early to do so? Yes but still the frustration sets in. Best to look at this as 'fear'.
When it comes to fantasy baseball , its best to be the realist:
Its nice to hope that your sleeper relief pitcher will luck his way into saves. Still I'm afraid that Wilton Lopez and his 2 ER, 4 H in just 1 IP with no strikeouts is grounds to get a manager's blessing to finally start closing games any time soon. Realistically, Brandon Lyon sucks dude. Somebody's going to get saves in Houston though.
Its comforting to think that Alex Gordon will finally break out for those that have invested annually in his 'talents'. Still, pessimistically, what has changed? Its a nice streak he's on that's for sure but I doubt he's a .379 hitter. Realistically, I think its somewhere in the middle. Gordon's going to exceed expectations this season.
Its nice to think that the Blue Jays have a shot at winning the AL East, but there are too many good teams in that division. The pessimist says alot has to go right, the realist says the division is more volatile than people think.
For those that have not given Cleveland starter Carlos Carrasco a second thought, the optimist in me thinks he could be very effective for even shallow leagues this season. The pessimist would note he plays for the Indians. Still, the realist says 150 K's 4.00- 1.27 should be attainable despite his disaster start last week. His tendency to keep the ball on the ground will only benefit him as the season wears on.
A few other random things quickly:
Seriously, Jayson Nix in the 2-hole John Farrell? Career OBP and Hit rate: .290 and 75%. That's 8th in the order material.
Adam Lind has returned. He's not going to hit .357 but set your expectations at around .300 and there will be no tears at the end of the year.
When you wait on a pitcher for years its kind of exciting to see him finally produce. Ricky Nolasco, although against the Astros his second time out, has been brilliant. 15 baserunners allowed in 15 innings with no walks.
Craig Kimbrel is 3-3 in nailing down saves with 6 strikeouts in just 3 IP. Yeah I should have reached for him in more leagues.
I actually feel bad for Justin Smoak in that Seattle lineup. I don't think I get more bored than when looking at that batting order. Smoak would have been a huge fantasy sleeper in Texas but he'll be lucky to get .270-20-75 in Seattle. Still, I like Smoak.
[ree-uh-list]
–noun
1.a person who tends to view or represent things as they really are. http://dictionary.reference.com/
There are three sides to this triangle, the side you wish it to be (the optimist), the side you'd hate it to be (the pessimist) and of course the reality.
Optimistically, (which is a terrible word for me to spell without a spell check for some reason) we all want the players we've taken recently in drafts to all break through. Every late round pick becomes a solid or superstar. They all stay healthy and they all produce. You win the league by 50 points and gloat for years after. Maybe we can look at this as 'hope'.
Pessimistically, fantasy players view the players that have a bad first week as garbage. Stud or not, drop them to the waiver wire as they're never going to turn it around. Is it too early to do so? Yes but still the frustration sets in. Best to look at this as 'fear'.
When it comes to fantasy baseball , its best to be the realist:
Its nice to hope that your sleeper relief pitcher will luck his way into saves. Still I'm afraid that Wilton Lopez and his 2 ER, 4 H in just 1 IP with no strikeouts is grounds to get a manager's blessing to finally start closing games any time soon. Realistically, Brandon Lyon sucks dude. Somebody's going to get saves in Houston though.
Its comforting to think that Alex Gordon will finally break out for those that have invested annually in his 'talents'. Still, pessimistically, what has changed? Its a nice streak he's on that's for sure but I doubt he's a .379 hitter. Realistically, I think its somewhere in the middle. Gordon's going to exceed expectations this season.
Its nice to think that the Blue Jays have a shot at winning the AL East, but there are too many good teams in that division. The pessimist says alot has to go right, the realist says the division is more volatile than people think.
For those that have not given Cleveland starter Carlos Carrasco a second thought, the optimist in me thinks he could be very effective for even shallow leagues this season. The pessimist would note he plays for the Indians. Still, the realist says 150 K's 4.00- 1.27 should be attainable despite his disaster start last week. His tendency to keep the ball on the ground will only benefit him as the season wears on.
A few other random things quickly:
Seriously, Jayson Nix in the 2-hole John Farrell? Career OBP and Hit rate: .290 and 75%. That's 8th in the order material.
Adam Lind has returned. He's not going to hit .357 but set your expectations at around .300 and there will be no tears at the end of the year.
When you wait on a pitcher for years its kind of exciting to see him finally produce. Ricky Nolasco, although against the Astros his second time out, has been brilliant. 15 baserunners allowed in 15 innings with no walks.
Craig Kimbrel is 3-3 in nailing down saves with 6 strikeouts in just 3 IP. Yeah I should have reached for him in more leagues.
I actually feel bad for Justin Smoak in that Seattle lineup. I don't think I get more bored than when looking at that batting order. Smoak would have been a huge fantasy sleeper in Texas but he'll be lucky to get .270-20-75 in Seattle. Still, I like Smoak.
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