Wednesday, October 12, 2011
Ryan Vogelsong - 2012 Avoid
It probably goes without saying that a 34 year old journeyman pitcher coming off a miraculous season should be on our avoid list for 2012. Still, we should break it down further. The Giants starter returned from Japan a 'new man' but essentially he was just really fortunate in 2011. His 80% strand rate is about 5% above league average and his .280 BABIP is begging for a bit of a regression in 2012. Now to be fair, Vogelsong actually does boast some nice new skills. His K/9 is nearing a very respectable 7 and his walk rate although not elite (3.06 BB/9) is quite good. He also kept the ball on the ground at a solid clip (45%). Essentially we're looking at a pretty good pitcher not a 2.71 ERA and 1.25 WHIP type though. Think an ERA closer to 3.5 and a WHIP closer to 1.3 and you'll be closer to the mark. Don't pay for the ERA folks!